Modelo brasileiro do sistema climático global

• Processo: 09/50528-6
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Data de Início da vigência: 01 de abril de 2011
• Data de Término da vigência: 31 de dezembro de 2015
• Área do conhecimento: Ciências Exatas e da Terra - Geociências - Meteorologia
• Acordo de Cooperação: CNPq - Pronex
• Pesquisador responsável: Carlos Afonso Nobre
• Beneficiário: Carlos Afonso Nobre
• Instituição Sede: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brasil
• Pesquisadores principais: Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti ; Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes
• Bolsa(s) vinculada(s): 14/06411-5 - Avaliação do modelo químico MOZART nos modelos ECHAM-HAM (Alemanha) e CESM-MAM3 (EUA) para sua inserção no Modelo Brasileiro de Sistema Terrestre (BESM), BP.PD; 14/03149-8 - Implementação do modelo de aerossóis no modelo brasileiro de sistema terrestre (BESM) e sua validação com dados de satélite, BP.PD
• Assunto(s): Química atmosférica Climatologia Clima Radiação atmosférica Mudança climática
• Palavra(s)-Chave do Pesquisador: Atmospheric Chemestry | Atmospheric Radiation Aerossol | Climate Model | Earth Suface Model | Oceanic Circulation Model
• Publicação FAPESP: https://www.fapesp.br/pfpmcg/pfpmcg_nobre.pdf

Resumo

The understanding of the interactions between the different components of the Earth system, such as ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere and the capability to simulate them using numerical models is a fundamental piece in the study of projections of impacts of the increase in greenhouse gases, aerosols in the atmosphere, and changes in the land used patterns in the earth's climate. This project aims at the development of the Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (BMGCS), a coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-biosphere-chemistry model that allows the study and simulation of global climate variability and change, incorporating expert knowledge about tropical rainforest dynamics and its interactions with the atmosphere. The project will develop an integrated land surface module with the ability to simulate land surface processes, physiology, phenology and vegetation dynamics. The model will contemplate the complete terrestrial carbon cycle, the probability of occurrence of fire disturbances, agricultural crops dynamics, flooded areas, terrestrial snow and ice dynamics. The model shall contribute with substantial improvements of the representation of biosphere-atmosphere interactions over South American biomes. The BMGCS will incorporate the expert knowledge of chemistry and aerosols from forest burning on climate. Coupled to a high resolution ocean model with biogeochemical and sea ice will allow the Brazilian community to develop centennial to millennia integration of the model for global climate research. This project will also allow fort the aggregation of the specific competencies of participating research groups and expert local knowledge, e.g., the effects of the Amazon forest and hydrology on climate. (AU)

Publicações científicas

(7)

(Referências obtidas automaticamente do Web of Science e do SciELO, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores)

NOBRE, PAULO; PEREIRA, ENIO BUENO; LACERDA, FRANCINETE FRANCIS; BURSZTYN, MARCEL; HADDAD, EDUARDO AMARAL; LEY, DEBORA. Solar smart grid as a path to economic inclusion and adaptation to climate change in the Brazilian Semiarid Northeast. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT, v. 11, n. 4, p. 499-517, 2019. (09/50528-6, 14/50848-9)

VEIGA, SANDRO F.; NOBRE, PAULO; GIAROLLA, EMANUEL; CAPISTRANO, VINICIUS; BAPTISTA, JR., MANOEL; MARQUEZ, ANDRE L.; FIGUEROA, SILVIO NILO; BONATTI, JOSE PAULO; KUBOTA, PAULO; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. The Brazilian Earth System Model ocean-atmosphere (BESM-OA) version 2.5: evaluation of its CMIP5 historical simulation. Geoscientific Model Development, v. 12, n. 4, p. 1613-1642, APR 24 2019. (18/06204-0, 09/50528-6, 08/57719-9)

NOBRE, PAULO; SIQUEIRA, LEO S. P.; DE ALMEIDA, ROBERTO A. F.; MALAGUTTI, MARTA; GIAROLLA, EMANUEL; CASTELAO, GUILHERME P.; BOTTINO, MARCUS J.; KUBOTA, PAULO; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; COSTA, MABEL C.; et al. Climate Simulation and Change in the Brazilian Climate Model. Journal of Climate, v. 26, n. 17, p. 6716-6732, SEP 2013. (09/50528-6)

NOBRE, CARLOS A.; SAMPAIO, GILVAN; BORMA, LAURA S.; CASTILLA-RUBIO, JUAN CARLOS; SILVA, JOSE S.; CARDOSO, MANOEL. Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, v. 113, n. 39, p. 10759-10768, SEP 27 2016. (09/50528-6, 08/57719-9)

GIAROLLA, EMANUEL; VEIGA, SANDRO F.; NOBRE, PAULO; SILVA, JR., MANOEL B.; CAPISTRANO, VINICIUS B.; CALLEGARE, ANDYARA O.. Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE, v. 70, n. 1, OCT 2020. (14/50848-9, 09/50528-6, 18/06204-0)

CAPISTRANO, VINICIUS BUSCIOLI; NOBRE, PAULO; VEIGA, SANDRO F.; TEDESCHI, RENATA; SILVA, JOSIANE; BOTTINO, MARCUS; DA SILVA JR, MANOEL BAPTISTA; MENEZES NETO, OTACILIO LEANDRO; FIGUEROA, SILVIO NILO; BONATTI, JOSE PAULO; et al. Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development, v. 13, n. 5, p. 2277-2296, MAY 14 2020. (14/50848-9, 09/50528-6, 18/06204-0)

NOBRE, CARLOS A.; SAMPAIO, GILVAN; BORMA, LAURA S.; CASTILLA-RUBIO, JUAN CARLOS; SILVA, JOSE S.; CARDOSO, MANOEL. Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v. 113, n. 39, p. 10-pg., 2016-09-27. (09/50528-6, 08/57719-9)